Traffic Starts Trickling Through Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has stoked fears of the gravest disruption to global oil supply in history, as the Middle East conflict stretches into its third week.

The blockade has squeezed shipping traffic to a trickle, with just 21 tankers transiting the route since the war began on Feb. 28, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, compared to more than 100 ships daily before the conflict.

Most vessels appear to be holding positions outside Hormuz, with thousands of seafarers stranded aboard vessels in the Gulf. Some have explored a pivot to disperse to alternative ports.

Roughly 400 vessels were spotted operating in the Gulf of Oman, as a massive backlog of ships waited near the chokepoint, according to a report from maritime intelligence firm Windward on Sunday.

While Iran has kept a tight grip on the strait, a small number of other ships have made the crossing under varying circumstances, signaling that Tehran is selectively letting through some non-Iranian oil cargo in negotiated safe voyages, according to maritime analysts.
Tehran has largely avoided targeting ships linked to China. Dozens of vessels broadcasting AIS — automatic identification system — destinations referenced Chinese ownership or crew presence while operating in the Gulf, according to Windward.

“This pattern suggests the possibility of an informal access filter, where vessels signaling Chinese ownership or crew may be attempting to indicate neutrality or avoid targeting in the current conflict environment,” Windward analysts said in a report last week.

From March 1 to March 15, a total of 11 China-linked vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, mostly general cargo ships, while tankers operated by mainstream Chinese owners still avoided the route. Earlier this month, Chinese state-owned Cosco Shipping suspended all new bookings for routes to and from ports in the Middle East.

Yet a ship that broadcasts its Chinese affiliation does not always guarantee a safe passage.

One China-owned vessel broadcasting “China Owner” via AIS during transit was struck by shrapnel while sailing from the Middle East Gulf toward Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates on March 12, a development that has since deterred further Chinese transits, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

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Editor: This isn't the end of the Strait of Hormuz saga, ships are risking everything on theories of alliances which may or may not exist.  There are more details about who has and hasn't gotten through safely on the link above. 

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