French defense manufacturer Dassault has beaten EADS for the right to negotiate exclusively with the Indian government on the sale of 126 fighter jets. Still, the deal could ultimately collapse -- in the past, all other talks to sell Dassault's Rafale aircraft abroad have failed.

Experts already thought it was a done deal that India would purchase Europe's prestigious Eurofighter fighter jets -- if for no other reason than the fact that the purchase would have made India the fifth country in the EADS consortium, as the government in New Delhi had been promised. In a recent letter to her Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh, German Chancellor Angela Merkel wrote that India would become a "fifth partner country" next to Germany, Britain, Spain and Italy.

Besides, who's ever even heard of the Rafale fighter jet? French defense firm Dassault has unsuccessfully tried to sell its aircraft to Morocco, Brazil, Switzerland and the United Arab Emirates. In the end, though, not a single potential buyer bit. Outside of the French air force, no other country has any Dassault fighter jets in its fleet. That's why officials in Paris went out of their way to tout how well the fighter jet had served France recently during deployments in Afghanistan and Libya. For his part, 86-year-old Dassault Chairman and CEO Serge Dassault has publicly stated over and over again that he sells the "world's best airplane."

On Tuesday, India astounded experts by deciding in favor of the Rafale. The country is now planning to purchase a total of 126 fighter jets in a contract that will be valued at around $10 billion. The aircraft will replace the Indian air force's older planes and will ultimately comprise one of the biggest deals in global defense history.

Observers in India also expressed surprise over Tuesday's move. "We had assumed that the Eurofighter would be purchased because it would have enabled India to simultaneously befriend four European countries," one Indian air force officer said after learning of the government's decision.